The World Bank has authorised a plan to utilise USD 1 billion from a frozen Afghanistan trust fund for education, agriculture, health, and family programmes in order to alleviate the country's deteriorating humanitarian and economic difficulties.
The goal is to protect the vulnerable, aid in the preservation of human capital and critical economic and social institutions, and to limit the need for future humanitarian assistance. Previously, India hosted the Delhi Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan.
An unstable Afghanistan has far-reaching consequences not only for the region, but also for the whole world. Afghanistan has been chaotic and unsafe for decades, but the Taliban's takeover of power in August 2021 has left the whole area on the verge of collapse.
Afghanistan's current position is unsettlingly similar to the geopolitical landscape of the late 1990s.
The Taliban took control in 1996, but the international world did not fully comprehend the implications of the new paradigm. International assistance organisations have withdrawn from the country. The Taliban are unable to pay government employees' salaries. The public health care sector is in a disarray. The war-ravaged country is facing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, which could turn into another violent conflict.
Aside from the misery of the rural people, even Afghans living in cities are struggling to make ends meet.
If the Taliban are unable to improve the country's economic state, they will find it impossible to govern and a civil war may emerge. Terrorist groups find it simpler to operate in a country that is experiencing economic hardship. Afghanistan is no different.
Many Western countries consider Afghanistan as an imminent security danger. In order to achieve worldwide recognition and financial help, the Taliban prefers a "diplomatic" strategy rather than using violent techniques. However, this seemingly tranquilly may not last long. If the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan worsens, even the Taliban will be unable to manage it, as proven by brutal "Islamic State" (IS) attacks. An escalating violent war in Afghanistan might spread to other nations in the region. If this occurs, regional powers will begin to assist proxies in order to maintain the war within Afghanistan's borders. However, it will only be a temporary solution to the Afghan war.
The longer the Taliban remain in power, the more difficult it will be to sustain regional stability. The Taliban is linked to international terrorism. Their return to power has strengthened regional extremist organisations. As they solidify, their tactical and strategic relationships with terrorist funders and patrons will deepen, threatening peace and security in the area and beyond.
Humanitarian aid alone will not address Afghanistan's humanitarian situation. Afghanistan's economy must be strengthened in order for Afghans to be lifted out of poverty. However, in order to help Afghanistan's economy, the international world must interact with the Taliban. Terrorism will not be controlled inside Afghanistan's borders unless the country's humanitarian condition improves.
The Taliban's rule will also give the Pakistani military and intelligence services a stronger hand in influencing outcomes for the country, requiring India to play a far lesser part in the development and infrastructural projects that has earned it favour over the last 20 years. In India's neighbourhood, there is a concern of increased radicalization and room for pan-Islamic terror groups.
Only the development of an inclusive administration with involvement from all ethnic groups would provide a solution. In recent years, Russia has developed ties with the Taliban. In order to confront the Taliban directly, India would want Russia's assistance. India should hold talks with China in order to reach a political settlement and long-term stability in Afghanistan. Talking with the Taliban would allow India to obtain security assurances from the rebels in exchange for ongoing development support or other commitments, as well as investigate the potential of the Taliban gaining independence from Pakistan.
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